The Fall of Aleppo and Soon Assad? A Geopolitical Analysis of the 2024 Northwestern Syria Offensive and the Fall of Aleppo

#GetNuanced with TJC

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The Fall of Aleppo and Soon Assad? A Geopolitical Analysis of the 2024 Northwestern Syria Offensive and the Fall of Aleppo

Could this actually be the beginning of the end of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad?

TJC

Dec 05, 2024

Transcript

In the immediate, ongoing aftermath of the stunning Fall of Aleppo the previous status-quo is in as much tatters as the Syrian Armed Forces, the core component of ensuring Assad’s Syria persists into future, which are in the wake of the unfolding military and humanitarian disaster that is the 2024 Northwestern Syria Offensive seemingly just melting away after abandoning their local military bases (as well as leaving behind the type of equipment most people would prefer their enemies didn’t have or at least not in considerable quantities, at the very least) as well as excusing away their tactical retreats and continuing territorial loss as they fled.

There have been for quite a while now within popular discourse pertaining to IR (International Relations) that within the ranks of the so-called “Axis of Resistance,” weak link

up until the beginning of what is shaping up to be a potentially decisive turning-point in what next year will mark fourteen-years of the SSyria's second city that in previous moments of history up until recently only was rivaled by the likes of Damascus, the political capital and former seat of the Umayyad Empire) urban center and formerly its most populous / economically vital city, prior to the initial onset of the conflict over a decade ago) and the ongoing success of the surprise Northwestern Syria Offensive led by HTS (Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham, known formerly as the al-Nusra Front) and a motley coalition of rebel militia groups representing the Syrian Opposition, the question now on everyone's mind —Is this the beginning of the end for embattled Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his secular, authoritarian Syrian Arab Republic?

Or... Will Russia, Iran, and the rest of his political allies from abroad be able to once again save him and his regime from a total collapse? And what is the strategic role and foreign policy priorities when it comes to Erdogan's Turkey and its particular concerns pertaining to the Syrian refugee crisis and the ever precarious Kurdish Question?

I discuss all these topics and provide some further gcontext to the rapidly evolving geopolitical situation in Syria, a country in the world whose history is

that has as of November 27th, 2024 (and continuing to the present) officially reignited what had up until recently been a more-or-less frozen conflict. is the Syrian Civil War which ever since 2011 has yet to be decisively settled in one way or another.

Until then, please stay safe and stay tuned!

Recommended Resources:

• Read the New York Times article I referenced:

⁠https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/01/world/middleeast/syria-rebels-bashar-al-assad.html⁠

• Syrian Civil War Live Map: ⁠https://syria.liveuamap.com/⁠

• Watch the video version of this segment on YT: ⁠

• Other resources referenced will be added shortly!

Previous segments covering similar interrelated issues:

A Third Palestinian Intifada? | Hamas Launches MAJOR SUPRISE ATTACK (Operation al-Aqsa Flood), Israel Responds with DECLARATION of WAR! - October 2023:

⁠https://getnuancednow.com/p/a-third-palestinian-intifada-hamas-092⁠

The Russo-Ukrainian War as of October 2022 - Territorial Annexations and Tactical Nukes?! | Historical Context and Strategic Analysis of Putin's Byzantine Ambitions for a New Russian Empire:

⁠https://getnuancednow.com/p/the-russo-ukrainian-war-as-of-october-1e7⁠

A Neo-Ottoman Foreign Policy in Erdogan's Turkey? | Understanding the Geopolitical Situation in Northern Syria (and Ukraine) - JUNE 2022:

⁠https://getnuancednow.com/p/a-neo-ottoman-foreign-policy-in-erdogans-e3d⁠

Afghanistan on the Edge: Foreign Policy Analysis of America's Retreat from the Graveyard of Empires | JULY 2021 EDITION:

⁠https://getnuancednow.com/p/afghanistan-on-the-edge-foreign-policy-e29⁠

A Growing Rift Between Moscow and Damascus? | A Geopolitical Analysis of the Syrian Civil War - 2020:

⁠